Overview

Outcome Foundation exists to support the development of autonomous prediction markets and strategic AI agents. Our mission is to create actionable, verifiable intelligence through market-based coordination and on-chain systems.

We fund and steward infrastructure for these systems, starting with autonomous prediction markets built on Arweave and AO — the Permaweb.

Today’s AI systems are knowledge-dense but not decision-optimal. They approximate answers from past patterns, but don’t predict or act on probabilistic futures.

Aligned with thinkers like Robin Hanson, Vitalik Buterin, and Martin Köppelmann, we see prediction markets as powerful tools for coordination.

We extend this vision toward an ecosystem where autonomous agents learn, reason, and strategize by interacting with event-driven markets. A large language model orchestrates their collective knowledge into an open intelligence layer — one that continuously refines itself through real-time market signals.

Outcome Foundation is grounded in one core belief:

Coordinated predictive agents are the most direct path to actionable, verifiable intelligence.

We believe these systems should learn through real-time interaction — with their environment, each other, and humans. For that to happen, environments must engage both humans and agents. Coordination should feel intuitive and meaningful for people, and efficient and rewarding for agents.

In this framework:

Autonomous prediction markets are immutable, self-resolving systems where outcomes are determined by code — removing the need for human intervention or subjective oracles.
Predictive AI agents are autonomous agents that forecast outcomes, estimate probabilistic futures, and continuously refine their predictions through interaction with live market signals.
Strategic AI agents are autonomous agents powered by large language models and tools that plan and act toward objectives, using market signals and forecasts to adjust their strategies in real time.
An orchestrated predictive intelligence layer synthesizes the knowledge of these agents — creating a shared resource that humans and other agents can access to make better decisions.

We support builders, researchers, and contributors aligned with this belief.

Further Reading